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Monday, April 29, 2013

2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs Preview

BECAUSE IT'S THE CUP...

 Oh, it's the most wonderful time of the year. The Stanley Cup Playoffs are set to begin, and yet again, the NHL has delivered some delicious first round match-ups right to your front door. Possibly as a result of the shortened, 48-game season, some teams that seemed to be locks for the playoffs a few months ago are left to the cold, cold, embrace of beach vacations and country clubs while some new faces get to participate in the postseason.
 So say goodbye to any chance at productive nights over the next few weeks, because the quest for Lord Stanley's Cup is beginning, and there's no way you should miss it. Eight different series, eight winners, and eight rosters full of broken dreams, that's the first round of the playoffs. Here's a closer look at this year's combatants:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Season series: PIT, 4-1-0
Goal differential: PIT, +6

 The 2013 edition of the Pittsburgh Penguins have not forgotten about their implosion in the first round of last year's playoffs and have loaded up on a ridiculous amount of talent to make sure that doesn't happen again. Paul Martin, Pascal Dupuis, and Chris Kunitz are in the midst of career years, trade deadline acquisitions Jarome Iginla and Brenden Morrow have been revitalized since moving to the Steel City, and the mid-season additions of Mark Eaton and Douglas Murray made the D-corps more sturdy in their own end. And oh, by the way, Sidney Crosby, the greatest player in the world, appears to be adamant on returning from his jaw injury (that he suffered in a game against the Isles, actually) in time for round one. Bad news for the Islanders.
 Don't immediately dismiss the blue and orange, though. John Tavares put up his bid for MVP this season, and gave the Penguins hell all five times that they met. He only had one goal and one assist in those games, but he was often the Isles' best player on the ice, and could his first time in the playoff spotlight be the perfect opportunity for him to break-through for more points against the Pens? Plus, while Pittsburgh's offensive game has been firing on all cylinders all season, the stinginess of their defense began to stumble late in the season, just like it did before their meltdown against Philly. Not to mention Sidney Crosby nor Evgeni Malkin have ever scored a goal in their careers against Islanders netminder Evgeni Nabokov. Are these bad omens?
 Ultimately, the Penguins will prove to be too much for the Islanders. Top to bottom they're a much better team, and I can't see these Isles beating these Penguins four times before the Pens beat them four times, can you?
Prediction: PIT wins 4-1.

Season series: Tied, 2-1-1
Goal differential: OTT, +3

 Meeting for the first time in a postseason since 1928, Montreal and Ottawa should bear down for one heck of a series. These proud Canadian clubs were in a dead heat in their four match-ups from the regular season, with each club earning one shootout victory and held the other squad to one goal at least once. Ottawa has the edge in goal differential only because of a 5-1 trouncing of the Habs that took place a mere two weeks into the abridged season.
 Both teams have outstanding goalies. Ottawa's Craig Anderson was a lock for the Vezina Trohpy before an injury derailed his bid for that award, but he picked up right where he left off when he returned, leading the league in save percentage (.941) and goals against average (1.69). In net the bleu, blanc, et rouge will be Carey Price, who is probably the most technically sound netminder in the world and will receive heavy Vezina consideration, himself.
 Montreal received key contributions this season from rookies Brendan Gallagher and Alex Galchenyuk. The Canadiens probably don't go from the basement of the Eastern Conference to the top of a tight Northeast Division without these players, and you can bet they won't miss a beat in their first NHL playoffs. Hockey players that play with the style of a Brendan Gallagher rarely disappear in the postseason. In fact, they usually produce even more. Galchenyuk has plenty of experience in do-or-die situations from his international experience with the United States in juniors (Gally was a member of the USA's gold medal-winning U20 World Juniors team this past January,) and while the grind of an NHL postseason is nothing like anything young Galchenyuk has ever seen before, this kid is Clutch with a capital "C".
 This series will also pit one of the league's most successful power plays (MTL) against the league's No. 1 penalty kill unit (OTT). Special teams could play a huge role here.
 However, the Canadiens played terrible hockey during the last few weeks of the season. Outspoken Habs bench boss Michel Therrien had no trouble calling them "an easy team to play against right now" after a huge defeat. If that trend continues and if Carey Price isn't on his game, which he inarguably was not during their slump, this series could be over quick. The Sens are an opportunistic team with tons of heart, and will make your death swift and gruesome if you aren't at your best.
Prediction: OTT wins 4-2. #lalala

Season series: NYR, 2-0-1
Goal differential: NYR, +4

 Oh, the familiar faces. This series will be the fourth time in the past five years that these two franchises have faced-off in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Both of these teams got off to disappointing starts to the season, but made the necessary adjustments and now find themselves in the playoffs only separated by one point in the standings.
 The season series favors the Rangers, but both of their wins came during the Caps' ice-cold start and the two teams never really met up during their inferno-hot finish.
 While the Rangers have tons of high-end offensive talent, hefty-contract guy Brad Richards had an off-year for his standards, Marian Gaborik was so inconsistent he had to be banished to Columbus (we love you, Blue Jackets, so close...) and anyone not named Rick Nash struggled to score goals all season. The Capitals have a likely MVP candidate in Russian sniper Alex Ovechkin, who just won his third "Rocket" Richard Trophy, and assist aficionado Nicklas Backstrom to set him up. Mike Ribeiro gave the Caps depth down the middle when he arrived this season, and was often their only bright spot during their early season struggles. Secondary scoring never became the Capitals' forte at any point during the year.
 Defensively, the edge has to go to the Rangers. John Tortorella builds his teams around a definsive mindset, they're loaded with talent on the blue line with guys like Dan Girardi and Ryan McDonagh. The Blueshirts expect Marc Staal to return to the line-up soon, too, and that would be terrible news for Ovechkin.
 In net there's not even a debate, Henrik Lundqvist is by far the better goalie in this series. Yes, Braden Holtby's play improved and helped the Caps win all those games late in the year, but he's prone to squeakers every now and then, and King Henrik is prone to awesomeness.
 If Lundqvist isn't the difference in this series, my guess is will be Captain Ryan Callahan. The guy does it all, and has one of the highest compete levels and lays it on the line every night. You gotta love it.
Prediction: NYR wins 4-3.

Season series: BOS, 3-1-0
Goal differential: BOS, +3

 The euphoric state in Toronto after the Leafs qualified for the playoffs for the first time in, like, ever came to an end and the jokes about Phil Kessel's inevitable disappearance began when they found out they had drawn the Boston Bruins in the first round. Toronto must brave the house of Zdeno Chara if they want to advance in the postseason.
 The Maple Leafs are a very fast team that loves to create chances on the rush, but is that neutralized against the rock-solid defense of the Boston Bruins? Probably. Bruins players like the little ball of hate Brad Marchand thrive in the playoffs, do more than half the players on the Leafs' roster know what the playoffs are!? The Bruins are the best face-off team in the league, mostly thanks to defensive specialist Patrice Bergeron.
 Surprisingly, though, based on regular season statistics, Toronto has just about every special teams advantage over the B's. The Bruins power play is notoriously garbage, but that's usually cancelled out by their potent PK. Well, the Leafs are actually second in the NHL in penalty kill percentage and were much more successful on the man-advantage, too. Boston also had the second-worst winning percentage when leading after two periods, so the speedy Leafs are likely to keep themselves in every game.
 Then the question becomes: would you rather have James Reimer or Tuukka Rask as your last line of defense?... That's what I thought.
Prediction: BOS wins 4-1.


WESTERN CONFERENCE

Season series: LA, 3-0-0
Goal differential: LA, +7

 This one is gonna be fun. These two hard-hitting, hungry teams meeting in the first round is a dream scenario for fans and a nightmare for those involved.
 L.A. swept St. Louis in the second round of the playoffs and owned the Blues during the course of the this regular season. The Kings have been playing better all-around hockey since those teams met in the middle of the year, too. Defenseman Drew Doughty got off to slow start to the season, but his game is back on track, close to where it was when he dominated the blue line en route to the Kings' Cup last year. Anze Kopitar has been the Kings' best player all season, as he should be, and likely won't slow down now. Jonathan Quick is a pretty solid asset to have, too.
 The Blues have had an interesting year, bouncing all over the standings but now find themselves with home-ice advantage going into round one. They look very similar to last year's Blues on paper, but they received significant offensive contributions from Chris Stewart this year, a guy who was inconsistent and found himself a healthy-scratch on some nights last year. Will he disappear in the playoffs, though? Trade deadline acquisition Jay Bouwmeester will also be making his playoff debut after 10 NHL seasons, so he's a wild card in terms of performance, too. 
 St. Louis also has a secret weapon of sorts. They were without the services of T.J. Oshie for about half the season, and they missed him dearly. Oshie appears to be ready to go for the start of this series, at the latest we'll see him by Game 2.
 Both of these teams have some of the best role players in the league filling out their bottom six, but in the end, Los Angeles looks like they'll get the better of St. Louis. The problem is, how much of a physical toll will this series take on Kings if they are to move on?
Prediction: LA wins 4-2.

Season series: SJ, 3-0-0
Goal differential: SJ, +3

 The San Jose Sharks 2013 season can best be described by this picture. Amazing start, brutal middle, strong finish. Through all the ups and sharp, sharp downs of the Shark's season, one thing has remained constant, and that's the play of goaltender Antti Niemi. Niemi was almost written off at the end of last season, and left some people wondering, "Uhm, wait... this is the guy who won a Stanley Cup with Chicago? Really?" The Finn bounced back and answered his critics questions despite having little time to rest due to the disappointing play of back-up Thomas Griess. You can bet on Nemo being a beast for the Sharks in the postseason.
 Interestingly enough, since Brent Burns' move to forward, the Sharks offense has been rejuvenated. They score goals now! Just like they did during their red-hot start to the year.
 Matt Irwin has been a very pleasant surprise for the team with likely the worst prospect pool in the NHL, but how will the young defenseman fare in postseason play?
 Don't attach too much value to the season series between these teams, because two of San Jose's three wins came in shootouts. Not an option anymore. The Canucks have a balanced attack and the addition of Derek Roy provided much-needed depth down the middle. Mix in some respectable goaltending and Vancouver is a formidable opponent.
 Although hockey is the sport where home-advantage argument holds the least amount of ground, this series will likely be decided by the first team to win on the road. San Jose had only two losses come in regulation at the Shark Tank (best in the NHL,) but a massive 14 regulation losses on the road (worst among playoff teams) and third worst amount of goals for in the NHL when away from home. Vancouver also lead the league in giveaways as the visiting team, something they don't want to do against this team, considering how strong they've been at home.
Prediction: VAN wins 4-3

Season series: DET, 2-1-0
Goal differential: DET, +2

 The Anaheim Ducks were the West's version of the Montreal Canadiens this year, going from bottom-feeder to division champs and a second seed in a calender year. Everyone on the Ducks roster was committed to winning this season, and they were getting offensive contributions from everyone. Heck, Daniel Winnik was chipping in big time, early on! The big dogs, Getzlaf, Perry, and Ryan, have been doing their jobs, and Finnish legends Saku Koivu and Teemu Selanne have defied father time to remain more the relevant contributors to this team. Francois Beauchemin had an awesome year anchoring what was an unstable blue line a season ago.
 All is well in good in Anaheim, right? Maybe not so much. The Ducks went 7-5-1 in the month of April, an "okay" record, but they were sleepwalking through most of those games. Anaheim has gotten lazy, and we've seen plenty of teams unable to flip the switch back on once the playoffs begin.
 The Red Wings, on the other hand, are the complete and total opposite. Captain Henrik Zetterberg did not want the Wings' consecutive playoff berth streak to end, and led the way as the winged wheel flew from out of the playoff picture and into seventh place. They are finally getting Jimmy Howard some scoring support, Johan Franzen appears to have woken up and everyone knows he can be dangerous in the postseason, and Jordin Tootoo and the rest of Detroit's grinders have been on a roll at both ends of the ice.
 The Ducks have size, skill, and love to push teams around. If Detroit can maintain it's current defensive integrity against Anaheim's top forwards, the Wings are in perfect position to stage an upset. That's a mighty big IF, though.
Prediction: DET wins 4-2.

Season series: CHI, 2-0-1
Goal differential: CHI, +3

 While Joel Quenneville's 'Hawks had been enjoying their playoff berth they practically clinched in late February, Mike Yeo's Minnesota Wild almost gagged away another playoff shot of their own. Luckily for them, they didn't have 82 games to continue to free fall down the standings.
 The Wild have been led by their stars all season, captain Mikko Koivu, blockbuster free agent signings Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, and rookie sensation Jonas Brodin, but it was the play of just about everyone else that suffered during their slump. No one was consistently reliable on the blue line other than Suter and Brodin, Yeo had to resort to using Kyle Brodziak on the power play, things just became a mess fast. The problems Minnesota was having are not problems you want to be having heading into the playoffs.
 Injured Jason Pominville has begun practicing with the Wild again, and he'd be welcomed back with open arms, for sure, but there's no telling when he'll be cleared to play.
 Chicago, on the other hand, has maintained a high level of play even though they secured the No. 1 overall seed weeks ago. Eight seeds usually give the top guns a run for their money in the NHL, but this series may be over before it even started.
Prediction: CHI wins 4-0