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Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Cash Grab

 As the old adage goes: Money talks, and Leafs fans knock.
 Toronto Maple Leafs' Mikhail Grabovski, who was set to become an unrestricted free agent this upcoming summer, was the subject of many trade rumors this year.  The Leafs insisted they were interested in resigning the skilled centerman, but negotiations were tough.  The deadline came and passed, Burke couldn't get the draft picks he wanted in return, so Grabo ended up staying in Toronto for the time being.  Today, GM Brian Burke secured Grabovski would be donning a blue and white sweater for many seasons to come, as the two parties were finally able to come to terms on a contract extension worth $27.5 million over 5 years.  What should be a joyous occasion for Leafs Nation has become more of a heated discussion point in Toronto.  Is Mikhail Grabovski really worth a $5.5 million annual cap-hit for the next five years?

 The easy answer here is no.  Yes, Grabovski's on-ice production has been the best of his career the past two seasons, but if Pittsburgh can sign James Neal (24 years old, 30 goals this season) to a $5 million cap-hit, what in the world makes Grabo (28 years old, 20 goals) worthy of a $5.5 million hit?  Not to mention as great as he's been for the Leafs this year, we all know Toronto management and fans would like to snatch up a player more fitting of the "true number one center" label than Grabovski.  Are you really willing to get charged $5.5 mil against your cap for a 2nd line center?  Easy to see why this could qualify for another bullet point on this list of follies the Leafs have made over the past decade, but let's take a deep breath, look at this again.
 Grabovski has been great for Toronto this year, and even though they sit just outside of the playoff picture right now, he has been a gigantic reason why they are not even further down the standings and even have a shot of stealing a 7th or 8th seed.  His contributions this year cannot be overlooked, and it must be assumed he would be a major player for the Leafs in their quest for the playoffs in season to come, too.  It's not like his production is going to magically decline once he hits that third, fourth, and fifth years of his contract just because he's 28 now.
 Imagine if Grabovski tests the market on July 1st, and someone else throws him a contract like this.  He's gone, and there are no other eye-popping UFA centers out there, so now your next best center is... David Steckel.  Don't get me wrong, Steckel is an excellent depth guy, an ace in the faceoff circle and a player any team would take in a heartbeat, but he doesn't exactly strike fear into the opposition (unless the opposition happens to be Sidney Crosby's subconscious.)  Suddenly everyone would be calling for Burke's head for NOT signing Grabovski.
 At first glance, this looks like Toronto just pulled a Pegula and spent too much money in the wrong places, but a closer look shows this deal had to happen. In reality the cap-hit is about $1-1.5 million too high, but if they stuck out their chest and did not give him that extra cash, Grabo probably leaves Toronto in the summer, and the Leafs skill and record take steps backwards in future seasons.  This doesn't get said too often, but this was a necessary signing.  Toronto may have overpaid for Grabovski, but what they truly couldn't afford was to lose him all together.